The ABS has just released the mortality statistics for the month of June in Australia (for doctor-certified deaths only, excluding coroner-referred deaths). Authors of the recent Research Note have analysed this to update previous detailed analysis up to May.
How has the COVID-19 situation evolved in Victoria during the 'second wave'? How does this compare to the 'first wave'? What might be coming next? Read on for this author’s thoughts,
Another week with record new case numbers and fatalities in Australia, continuing to be dominated by Victoria. Six vaccine candidates have now reached Phase Three trials globally, whilst locally a Phase Two trial managed by Flinders University has been approved. CPI records the largest drop on record, dominated by free childcare and low petrol prices. And in terms of understanding the disease, there’s increasing evidence of long-term health implications as a result of COVID-19 with an Italian study showing that after 60 days from onset only 13% of patients reported being symptom free.
In light of a major economic event such as COVID-19 it is critical to return to first principles when thinking about investing. When there is a downward market reaction to an event, this does not mean future return estimates should also be revised down (indeed they may even be revised up). Where valuations are today for some equities and bonds, achieving ambitious long-term return goals may be challenging. Douglas Isles explores considerations fo future investment returns.
