The purpose of this document is to provide a discussion of the material items that could be considered when setting 'Incurred but not Reported' (IBNR) assumptions amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Given most companies will have their own specific IBNR approach and rationale for using that approach, this is not intended as a technical IBNR note, rather a discussion of the major out-of-model considerations that come into play when setting the assumption.
In response to the ongoing pandemic situation, the Institute formed a COVID-19 Working Group, led by Jennifer Lang. Over the past 10 months, the working group has produced a number of resources to support actuaries in their roles. The Pandemic Resource Centre houses articles, Pandemic Briefings, discussion forums and useful links that inform members and the wider community of the impacts of the pandemic. Last month we asked the membership what resources they had found helpful to support their work through the pandemic this year, and what else they would like to see from the Institute.
The last fortnight has been all about vaccines with the UK, US and Canada all commencing roll-out of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine after emergency use authorisation in all three countries. Research in the University of Queensland’s vaccine has been halted after study participants registered false positive HIV results. In case numbers, globally numbers of new cases continue to break new records and death numbers also increasing. Australia, however, continues to do extremely well, registering no locally acquired cases for the first time since March!