Following the success of last year’s Asset Allocation competition, the Wealth Management Sub-Committee has decided to run a new investment competition, but with a twist. Instead of acting as a Portfolio Manager, this year you must act as an Investment Analyst / Economist – and your Portfolio Manager boss is going to ask you some demanding questions!
Your Portfolio Manager boss needs help, are you ready?
You will be given twenty propositions relating to investment markets. For each proposition you must answer: ‘yes’, ‘no’ or ‘unsure’.
At 30 June 2017 your Portfolio Manager boss will then assess how well you have performed. Hope you do ok!
Each proposition will be scaled depending on the responses from other participants in the competition. For a proposition which receives more ‘yes’ answers than ‘no’ answers, the scaling factor for a ‘yes’ answer that proves to be correct will be lower than the scaling factor that would be used for a ‘no’ answer if that had turned out to be correct.
The scaling factor to be used for each proposition is: the sum of all ‘yes’ and ‘no’ answers divided by the number of correct answers.
Those participants with correct answers for a proposition will be given one point multiplied by that proposition’s scale factor. Incorrect answers will be given a score of zero points. Any ‘unsure’ answers will not affect the scale factor and will be allocated one point for that proposition.
For example, if a proposition had 30 ‘yes’ answers and 20 ‘no’ answers, and the correct answer was ‘yes’, those that answered ‘yes’ would get a score of 1.67 and those that answered ‘no’ would get a score of zero points. If the correct answer was ‘no’, those that answered ‘no’ would get a score of 2.50 and those that answered ‘yes’ would get a score of zero points. Those that answered ‘unsure’ would get one point.
Each participant’s total score will be the sum of their scores for each of the 20 propositions. A ‘market index’ score will be 20 points. Can you beat the market? The winner of the competition will be the person with the highest total score. Fabulous prizes will be offered to the top three place-getters. There is nothing to lose, except for bragging rights!!
Entries must be received no later than 5.00pm Friday 15 July 2016.
To enter, Click here to start the survey
When entries have closed the spread of answers for each proposition will be revealed in an Actuaries Magazine article. Are you bullish, bearish or just not sure?
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